“The great pitchers are the ones who work the count in their favor and put the batter in a hole. There are twelve possible ball and strike counts. Out of those twelve there is one that seems neutral – the first pitch – with five in favor of the pitcher and six in favor of the hitter. The favorable five counts for the pitcher are: 0-2, 1-2, 0-1, 2-2, and 1-1. The six counts favorable to the hitter are: 1-0, 2-1, 3-2, 2-0, 3-1, and 3-0.”
– from a blog post on June 25, 2010 by Ricky Zanker on The Hardball Times entitled “Getting Ahead In The Count” (Zanker used pitch-by-pitch data to determine the pitchers who had the highest and lowest percent of pitches in a favorable count during the 2010 season up to that point.)
There’s an adage for gamblers that says “quit while you’re ahead”. For a pitcher in baseball, if you find yourself ahead in the count, that’s not the time to quit or give in. That’s the time to get the batter out.
Prior to 2012 there had been 20 perfect games thrown in Major League Baseball (this includes two perfect games thrown in 1880 prior to the “modern age” of baseball). 20 perfect games in about 130 years. On average about one every six to seven years.
In 2012 alone, three perfect games were thrown:
Philip Humber of the Chicago White Sox pitching against the Seattle Mariners 4/21/2013
Matt Cain of San Francisco Giants pitching against the Houston Astros 6/13/2013
Felix Hernandez of Seattle Mariners pitching against the Tampa Bay Rays 8/15/2013
Because each of these games was perfect, only 27 opposing batters came to the plate in each. Below is a breakdown by game/pitcher regarding first pitch strikes, getting ahead and staying ahead in the count, and other elements. (Getting ahead and staying ahead is about “not falling behind in the count”. The numbers in each summary below are about throwing a first pitch strike and then either staying ahead or at least even in the count as a pitcher.)
Philip Humber of the Chicago White Sox pitching against the Seattle Mariners 4/21/2013
Total Outs: 27
First Pitch Strikes: 17
Get Ahead and Stay Ahead: 14
Full Counts: 2
Balls In The Air: 13
Ground Balls: 5
Strikeouts: 9
Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants pitching against the Houston Astros 6/13/2013
Total Outs: 27
First Pitch Strikes: 18
Get Ahead and Stay Ahead: 13
Full Counts: 4
Balls In The Air: 7
Ground Balls: 6
Strikeouts: 14
Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners pitching against the Tampa Bay Rays 8/15/2013
Total Outs: 27
First Pitch Strikes: 16
Get Ahead and Stay Ahead: 12
Full Counts: 2
Balls In The Air: 7
Ground Balls: 8
Strikeouts: 12
These simple summaries obviously don’t tell the whole pitching story for each of these games. There’s nothing to indicate for instance speed of pitches, the changing of speed, type of pitch, or location. I think they are somewhat enlightening in their own right though.
For instance, on average each pitcher threw a first pitch strike about 60 to 65% of the time. And for each time they got ahead with a first pitch strike, they stayed ahead (or even) about 75 to 80% of the time. Batters are uneasy when they’re behind in the count. Pitchers have more options with respect to type of pitch and location when they’re ahead in the count. Getting ahead and staying ahead matters.
Strikeouts too certainly help during a game (perfect or otherwise), but they aren’t absolutely critical. Matt Cain got just over half of the outs against the Astros by strikeout. But Philip Humber only a third.
It’s important to recognize that “getting ahead and staying ahead” doesn’t guarantee success when pitching. Hitters are trying to hit the ball, and sometimes they do no matter what you do as a pitcher. But getting ahead and staying ahead definitely matters.
The most striking stat (which isn’t actually reflected in the summaries above) from each of these perfect games, is “how many times did an at-bat go to 2-0?” A 1-0 count for a batter is good. A 2-0 count is even better. How many times did Hernandez, Humber, and Cain throw two balls in a row to begin an at-bat?
Felix Hernandez had a 2-0 count three times (one of which he actually went to 3-0).
Philip Humber had a 2-0 count two times (one of which he actually went to 3-0).
Matt Cain never had a 2-0 count during his perfect game. Think about that.
Matt Cain after throwing a first pitch ball (which happened nine times during his perfect game), always threw a second pitch strike.
The batter was ahead, but not for long. That definitely matters.
Elevate Your Baseball Game 
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